Just a few months ago -- or even just last week -- it seemed that Republicans would be happy to gain 3-4 seats in the United States Senate, a signficiant but not reality-changing event. That's because the majority party typically loses seats in mid term elections, and Democrats, though not able to simply ram things through, would still have in the range of 55-56 seats.
That reality is gone. As it appears now, if nothing changes -- the Republicans, just by showing up on November 2, will emerge with 49 seats in the United States Senate -- with 2-4 others up in the air.
With Obama's poll numbers in all polls -- not just Rasmussen -- hovering in the mid to high 40's with an extremely high amount of people who passionately dislike him, the Democrats around the country are in deep trouble. Poll after poll shows previously safe and unthreatened Democrats now losing with high profile challengers taking them on. The latter part is important because even if said vulnerable Democrats retire -- the high profile Republican is still likely to win.
The only case that will likely not be true is Connecticut, where Chris Dodd, who was going to lose, resigned. The Democrat, popular State AG Richard Blumenthal -- holds a 20 point lead over his challengers, Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon. Though that will almost certainly narrow, the fact that Blumenthal is in the mid 50's makes him a strong lean at this point.
So, that's one the Democrats can breate easy about. The ONLY one.
Outside of Pat Leahy in Vermont, Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, Ron Wyden in Oregon and Chuck Schumer in New York, every single other Democrat is either in the fight for their life, a potential fight for their life, or LOSING.
Of course, to get to 49 -- or 50 or 51, certainly -- the Republicans have to hold on to the seats that they have which are open. That's Missouri (Kit Bond), Ohio (George Voinovich), New Hampshire (Judd Gregg) and Kentucky (Jim Bunning).
In all four -- the likely Republican winner -- Roy Blunt, Rob Portman, Kelly Ayotte, and Rand Paul (who will likely beat Trey Grayson, now) -- holds general election leads over their Democrat challengers. Ayotte and Paul still have to win very competitive primaries, but if they win, they will probably win the general. In NH, if Lamontagne were to win, he would have some ground to make up vs. Paul Hodes, but it would certainly be competitive. In Kentucky, even if Paul were to lose to Grayson, Grayson would win the seat.
Quick side note -- let's not forget that conservative challengers are likely to beat moderates in primaries in Florida (Rubio over Crist) and Utah (anyone over Bob "ObamaCare Lite" Bennett), moving the Senate further to the right.
So let's assume for a moment that we hold all of those open seats, and the Republicans still are at 41 as a baseline number. This is where the fun starts.
In order of likelihood of victory, let's start counting:
42. North Dakota -- Governor John Hoeven will walk away with this seat, currently held by retiring Senator Byron Dorgan.
43. Delaware -- Rep. Mike Castle will walk away with this seat, currently held by Ted Kauffman, who was going to be a place holder for AG and VP Son Beau Biden, who appears unlikely to run.
44. Pennsylvania -- former Rep. Pat Toomey will beat either Arlen "act like a lady" Specter or Joe Sestak.
45. Nevada -- Harry Reid is toast -- the question is, who puts him in the toaster? Our guess is Sue Lowden, though Danny Tarkanian is also a great candidate.
46. Arkansas -- Blanche Lincoln could be defeated by anyone, at this point, polls show. Previously, we thought we might need to recruit Mike Huckabee here. Not now, as Gilbert Baker or any of the other potentials would win easily.
47. Colorado -- Former Lt Governor and Susan B Anthony-endorsed Jane Norton is currently blowing out interim Senator Michael Bennett. While Norton still has a primary battle on her hands, she probably wins -- and then will coast in the general.
48. Illinois -- RINO Mark Kirk proved victorious this past week in the Lincoln state, setting aside a cast of conservatives. Credit goes to him, and now polls show him with a healthy lead over State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. While Kirk is not ideal, and would likely team up with the Maine Senators often, winning Obama's seat (on top of Bidens and Reids) makes Mark Kirk acceptable -- particularly when you consider the last candidate we ran here was Alan Freaking Keyes.
49. Indiana. Yes, Indiana, where former Senator Dan Coats is now challenging the man who replaced him, Evan Bayh. Polls showed previously that Mike Pence would beat Bayh, and we expect the popular Coats to win as well -- though it will certainly be competitive, as the conservative and likeable Bayh isn't seen in the same class as other Democrats. That said, he has been part of the 60, and though he's been outspoken lately about the Dems needing to move to the center, he's in trouble.
So, that's 49. If nothing else happened, the Democrats would have 49 seats, the Republicans 49 seats plus Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman. Sanders would most certainly caucus with the Dems, of course, but Lieberman could force a tie by caucusing with the Republicans. If he did so, the Dem leader -- not Reid, of course -- would still be called "Majority Leader", due to the fact Biden would cast a tiebreaking vote.
But, the Republicans might not be done. Let's look at other potential wins for the GOP, in order of likely victory:
50. Wisconsin. Former Governor Tommy Thompson is weighing a bid against Russ Feingold. Polls show he would win if he ran. If he does, you can move this seat to the 8 above.
51. Washington. Patty Murray has been an awful Senator yet has somehow stayed in since 1992. Yes, that woman has been in since 1992. The Republicans are hoping to recruit a top tier candidate here -- such as Dan Reichert -- and if they do, Murray may be done. Even if they don't, even internet conservative-star Chris Widener could present an interesting contrast.
52. California. Boxer is under 40 here, and the fact three strong challengers -- Fiorinia, Campbell, and Devore -- are all within six shows she is vulnerable. Heck, if Scott Brown can win in Massaschusetts, where there are virtually no Republicans, one of the three can win in Calfornia, where, despite it's reputation, there are tens of millions of Republicans -- and where Boxer is a highly polarizing figure. While conservatives should get behind Devore -- he's by far the best choice -- RINO's Campbell and Fiorina certainly would be formidable.
53. New York (Gillibrand) -- this is one we would have if Rudy ran OR Pataki ran. Right now, that appears unlikely but its conceivable a strong alternative could emerge who could defeat the weak and primary-challenged Gillibrand. She would be best to answer positively to the question "have you driven a Ford out of the race lately?", because Harold Ford will cause her all sorts of problems.
So, what is our prediction? Our prediction is that Thompson runs in Wisconsin, bringing the Republicans to 50. That wouldn't be an upset. Right now, the Republicans would need to either find candidates or come from behind in the other three, but given how the GOP is recruiting people quickly, don't be surprised if come November 4, the Republicans have picked up 10 seats and are in control of the United States Senate in perhaps one of the most stunning sweeps in history.
Good news for the GOP -- some of those pickups come in seats like Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana -- where trends show they are unlikely to lose it in the future.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Poll Shows Moran in Trouble
Jerry Moran supporters sent out odd emails this week touting the results of a SurveyUSA poll signfiying they had a 7 point lead, 40-33.
While Moran does have a small, barely-statistically-meaningful lead, the folks behind the Tiahrt campaign must be pleased with what the poll shows beyond the top number.
First of all, the top number itself is not good for Moran at all. Despite what they describe as a big money advantage and having run in several uncontested races for Congress, and twice being mentioned as a candidate for Governor, Jerry Moran is only at 40%. That's a nice number but let's not forget Moran started with a big fundraising advantage simply because he had more money from those uncontested races. Yet, Tiahrt remains basically just barely behind. Nothing has changed in the past few months in the overall number. A 7 point lead at this point means little -- just ask Sheila Frahm, who was up 25 points in May on Brownback in 1996.
Secondly, this is the devastating blow for Moran:
Moran's lead in the western part of the state -- previously 52 points -- is down to 35 points. While still huge, Moran's entire strategy seems based on a massive win in a district where his name ID is huge. While Tiahrt has a smaller 17 point lead in Wichita and Moran continues a 15 point lead in the KC area, if Moran continues to slide in the west as that region's conservative voters become aware -- and drift -- to Tiahrt -- Moran's lead appears extremely shaky.
It is our view that the very simple regional analysis of this race -- that Tiahrt would win Wichita, Moran the west, and then they battle it out in Topeka and KC -- is a tad short sighted. It certainly will play a factor, but voters are not robots -- there will be many voters in the west who will vote for Tiahrt, as they become familiar with him as ads go up. While there will be a similar effect for Moran in Wichita, the fact is he doesn't have nearly as much room to grow there as Tiahrt does in the West. Also, simply because the "Big First" is very spread out, trying to keep that vote locked in for Moran will be difficult once Tiahrt's ads are up and running. Make no mistake -- there will be many voters in the west who will favorably respond to Tiahrt and soon not care if Moran is their current Congressman or not.
Our point is that the big issue here is not region, but the 27% of people who are undecided. If they were going to vote by region, they would already know their choice. The fact that more than a quarter of the vote is completely undecided -- and that there was an 18 point swing in Moran's western vote -- shows that this is much more than a regional race and the race is very fluid.
In our view, it will come down to who simply has the best organization and turnout game and the best overall message. In an area like Johnson County, which is very easy to walk quickly, that will be extremely important. Moran will tout a money advantage but as we've covered here before, 99% of the voters do not care who has more money -- they will never know. And, Tiahrt's money is plenty to compete in a Kansas summer-time primary where the markets are small and people aren't watching TV.
In that end, it seems that the Tiahrt campaign is much more visible on the ground, is doing a better job of claiming the conservative label, and honestly seems much more engaged himself on the ground. The more people actually see the candidate, the better. Tiahrt's been working very hard to get himself to as many events as possible, big and small, and that is to his credit. It also seems that the Tea Party movement is much more aligned in Tiahrt's favor, which means there is much more energy in his camp when it comes to turnout. Moran's endorsements from friends on Captiol Hill and Mayors elected by 8% of the voters will not make up the gap, either.
Moran and Tiahrt could both very well win and both would make fine Senators. But, with Moran's early advantages, his being stuck at 40% -- and losing voters in your own district at a very quick rate -- is not a recipe for victory.
While Moran does have a small, barely-statistically-meaningful lead, the folks behind the Tiahrt campaign must be pleased with what the poll shows beyond the top number.
First of all, the top number itself is not good for Moran at all. Despite what they describe as a big money advantage and having run in several uncontested races for Congress, and twice being mentioned as a candidate for Governor, Jerry Moran is only at 40%. That's a nice number but let's not forget Moran started with a big fundraising advantage simply because he had more money from those uncontested races. Yet, Tiahrt remains basically just barely behind. Nothing has changed in the past few months in the overall number. A 7 point lead at this point means little -- just ask Sheila Frahm, who was up 25 points in May on Brownback in 1996.
Secondly, this is the devastating blow for Moran:
Moran's lead in the western part of the state -- previously 52 points -- is down to 35 points. While still huge, Moran's entire strategy seems based on a massive win in a district where his name ID is huge. While Tiahrt has a smaller 17 point lead in Wichita and Moran continues a 15 point lead in the KC area, if Moran continues to slide in the west as that region's conservative voters become aware -- and drift -- to Tiahrt -- Moran's lead appears extremely shaky.
It is our view that the very simple regional analysis of this race -- that Tiahrt would win Wichita, Moran the west, and then they battle it out in Topeka and KC -- is a tad short sighted. It certainly will play a factor, but voters are not robots -- there will be many voters in the west who will vote for Tiahrt, as they become familiar with him as ads go up. While there will be a similar effect for Moran in Wichita, the fact is he doesn't have nearly as much room to grow there as Tiahrt does in the West. Also, simply because the "Big First" is very spread out, trying to keep that vote locked in for Moran will be difficult once Tiahrt's ads are up and running. Make no mistake -- there will be many voters in the west who will favorably respond to Tiahrt and soon not care if Moran is their current Congressman or not.
Our point is that the big issue here is not region, but the 27% of people who are undecided. If they were going to vote by region, they would already know their choice. The fact that more than a quarter of the vote is completely undecided -- and that there was an 18 point swing in Moran's western vote -- shows that this is much more than a regional race and the race is very fluid.
In our view, it will come down to who simply has the best organization and turnout game and the best overall message. In an area like Johnson County, which is very easy to walk quickly, that will be extremely important. Moran will tout a money advantage but as we've covered here before, 99% of the voters do not care who has more money -- they will never know. And, Tiahrt's money is plenty to compete in a Kansas summer-time primary where the markets are small and people aren't watching TV.
In that end, it seems that the Tiahrt campaign is much more visible on the ground, is doing a better job of claiming the conservative label, and honestly seems much more engaged himself on the ground. The more people actually see the candidate, the better. Tiahrt's been working very hard to get himself to as many events as possible, big and small, and that is to his credit. It also seems that the Tea Party movement is much more aligned in Tiahrt's favor, which means there is much more energy in his camp when it comes to turnout. Moran's endorsements from friends on Captiol Hill and Mayors elected by 8% of the voters will not make up the gap, either.
Moran and Tiahrt could both very well win and both would make fine Senators. But, with Moran's early advantages, his being stuck at 40% -- and losing voters in your own district at a very quick rate -- is not a recipe for victory.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Tea Party Returns to Boston
One year ago, on January 20, Barack Obama was sworn into office on a message of hope and change but that was really about government control, increases taxes, and massive spending.
In response to the bailouts, stimulus packages, government takeovers, and other proposals such as cap and trade, card check, and now ObamaCare, the tea party movement was born. It first began in small gatherings at local Congressional offices and other small protests around the country. It then turned into a national protest on tax day, and the media began to take notice.
The question at the time -- a question we covered here at Kaw & Border -- was about whether the tea parties could turn into a real political movement that could achieve political victory. After all, the tea party movement is not represented by any one organization or individual, which is probably it's strength -- it is a true grassroots network of independents, conservatives and traditional Republicans -- all whom are deeply concerned about the road our nation is going down.
Elections are also not won on street corners or in protests, but by funding and supporting political campaigns that aim to replace those in office who are causing the damage to America. I order for a movement to truly gain stature in the American political system, it must achieve positive results at the ballot box. Otherwise, they will lose steam and be marganlized.
The first test of the tea party movement came in the November 2009 elections. They could certainly claim partial credit in the wins in Virginia and New Jersey, though one could claim that those elections may have happened anyway given the resurgence of Republicans in Virginia and the unpopularity of John Corzine. They also achieved a partial victory in New York -- ensuring that RINO Dede Scozzafava did not get seated but failing to get Doug Hoffman over the top. However, it could be argued that Doug Hoffman was not a great candidate.
However, in a twist of historical irony, the tea party returns to Massachusetts in the form of a political brigade aiming to claim the vacant Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy. Amazingly, the special election is also being held on Tuesday, January 19, exactly a year from Obama's inauguration.
Even with Obama's sinking numbers, Democrats thought they had this one in the bag. Unfortunately for them, their candidate -- Martha Coakley -- is turning out to be a real dud -- and the Republicans, unlike in the NY-23 race, have recruited a potential star in Scott Brown, who comes across, while a registered Republican -- as an independent conservative voice -- the kind of candidate that will succeed in 2010 (take notice, national and local Republicans!).
And, polling is reflecting that. A week ago, Rasmussen showed Hoffman down just 9 points -- still a healthy margin with only two weeks left. Now, that margin is down to 49-47 in a new poll by Rasmussen. Just this week, Brown had a money bomb that raised over $1 million dollars in one day, a phenomenal amount of money.
He also dominated her in a debate, and had a line that all candidates dream of making -- the kind that will set the tone for the campaign and can win you an election. In response to a question asked by David Gergen regarding whether he was willing to let health care reform die as the representative of "Ted Kennedy's Senate seat", Brown said "This isn't the Ted Kennedy seat or the Democrats seat, it's the people's seat."
At that point, it seemed like nothing else mattered. He's an insurgent candidate with a grasp of the issues and his conservative message is playing very well in Massachusetts, of all places.
The race will be tight next week but the fact it is now a tossup shows you just how far the Democrats have fallen. A Brown victory will be a political earthquake not felt since 1994 -- the safest of all safe seats taken over by a Republican -- a conservative Republican -- funded and supported by tea partiers coast to coast -- that caused the death of ObamaCare and the beginning of the end for the current regime in Washington.
What is also shows is the awesome political power the tea party and conservative movements can wield when they focus their efforts. Brown raising $1 million in a day is amazing, but candidates nationwide could benefit from this political insurgency and would only need a fraction of that effort. Most primary elections in Congressional races can be won with just a few hundred thousand dollars. State legislative elections can be won with well under $100,000, depending on the size of the district.
The challenge for the tea party movement will be in deciding which candidates to support. More than one viable candidate may emerge in a particular race. But perhaps that isn't a problem after all -- perhaps what the Massachusetts example shows is that political offices will no longer be controlled by back room deal, whether they occur in the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Perhaps it will be left to the candidates themselves and the movements they represent to rise up and earn support and get the word out about their campaigns.
Perhaps, once again, elections will truly decided by the people. That, no matter what your persusasion is, is a very good thing.
In response to the bailouts, stimulus packages, government takeovers, and other proposals such as cap and trade, card check, and now ObamaCare, the tea party movement was born. It first began in small gatherings at local Congressional offices and other small protests around the country. It then turned into a national protest on tax day, and the media began to take notice.
The question at the time -- a question we covered here at Kaw & Border -- was about whether the tea parties could turn into a real political movement that could achieve political victory. After all, the tea party movement is not represented by any one organization or individual, which is probably it's strength -- it is a true grassroots network of independents, conservatives and traditional Republicans -- all whom are deeply concerned about the road our nation is going down.
Elections are also not won on street corners or in protests, but by funding and supporting political campaigns that aim to replace those in office who are causing the damage to America. I order for a movement to truly gain stature in the American political system, it must achieve positive results at the ballot box. Otherwise, they will lose steam and be marganlized.
The first test of the tea party movement came in the November 2009 elections. They could certainly claim partial credit in the wins in Virginia and New Jersey, though one could claim that those elections may have happened anyway given the resurgence of Republicans in Virginia and the unpopularity of John Corzine. They also achieved a partial victory in New York -- ensuring that RINO Dede Scozzafava did not get seated but failing to get Doug Hoffman over the top. However, it could be argued that Doug Hoffman was not a great candidate.
However, in a twist of historical irony, the tea party returns to Massachusetts in the form of a political brigade aiming to claim the vacant Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy. Amazingly, the special election is also being held on Tuesday, January 19, exactly a year from Obama's inauguration.
Even with Obama's sinking numbers, Democrats thought they had this one in the bag. Unfortunately for them, their candidate -- Martha Coakley -- is turning out to be a real dud -- and the Republicans, unlike in the NY-23 race, have recruited a potential star in Scott Brown, who comes across, while a registered Republican -- as an independent conservative voice -- the kind of candidate that will succeed in 2010 (take notice, national and local Republicans!).
And, polling is reflecting that. A week ago, Rasmussen showed Hoffman down just 9 points -- still a healthy margin with only two weeks left. Now, that margin is down to 49-47 in a new poll by Rasmussen. Just this week, Brown had a money bomb that raised over $1 million dollars in one day, a phenomenal amount of money.
He also dominated her in a debate, and had a line that all candidates dream of making -- the kind that will set the tone for the campaign and can win you an election. In response to a question asked by David Gergen regarding whether he was willing to let health care reform die as the representative of "Ted Kennedy's Senate seat", Brown said "This isn't the Ted Kennedy seat or the Democrats seat, it's the people's seat."
At that point, it seemed like nothing else mattered. He's an insurgent candidate with a grasp of the issues and his conservative message is playing very well in Massachusetts, of all places.
The race will be tight next week but the fact it is now a tossup shows you just how far the Democrats have fallen. A Brown victory will be a political earthquake not felt since 1994 -- the safest of all safe seats taken over by a Republican -- a conservative Republican -- funded and supported by tea partiers coast to coast -- that caused the death of ObamaCare and the beginning of the end for the current regime in Washington.
What is also shows is the awesome political power the tea party and conservative movements can wield when they focus their efforts. Brown raising $1 million in a day is amazing, but candidates nationwide could benefit from this political insurgency and would only need a fraction of that effort. Most primary elections in Congressional races can be won with just a few hundred thousand dollars. State legislative elections can be won with well under $100,000, depending on the size of the district.
The challenge for the tea party movement will be in deciding which candidates to support. More than one viable candidate may emerge in a particular race. But perhaps that isn't a problem after all -- perhaps what the Massachusetts example shows is that political offices will no longer be controlled by back room deal, whether they occur in the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Perhaps it will be left to the candidates themselves and the movements they represent to rise up and earn support and get the word out about their campaigns.
Perhaps, once again, elections will truly decided by the people. That, no matter what your persusasion is, is a very good thing.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Find us on RedCounty.com
While we will continue to post here, we wanted to let you know RedCounty.com is featuring a weekly Kaw & Border column each Monday. Here is a link to our last post, "Could Johnson County Experience a Conservative Wave in 2010?" Below is the content:
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Could Johnson County Experience a Conservative Wave in 2010?
That's the question conservative activists, potential candidates, and political analysts should be asking in Johnson County as we enter 2010. With Sam Brownback virtually unopposed for Governor, and the winner of the Moran-Tiahrt primary virtually unopposed for the U.S Senate, Kris Kobach likely to be the Sec of State nominee, and with conservative candidates relatively likely to emerge in all three Congressional open races, and no major Democrat on the ballot with any name ID, Republicans stand to return Kansas to it's solid red-state status from the annoying shade of purple it had through the 90's due to people like Kathleen Sebelius, Mark Parkinson, Paul Morrison, Dennis Moore, Nancy Boyda, and the like.
At lower levels, the Democrats only made modest gains, but one area they made progress was in Johnson County. From 1995-1996, there were no Democratic seats in the Kansas House or Senate in JoCo. For years, there was one -- Sue Storm in District 22. Now there are six. In fact, if you break down the 22 House Reps, this is how they could be ideogically aligned:
8 Conservatives2 "Republicans"6 RINO's6 Democrats
With 2010 looking to be such a strong year nationally and statewide for the GOP, that trend could easily find itself in Johnson County as well. The question will be whether Democrats are ousted by RINO's or conservatives, and whether any open seats are taken over by RINO's or conservatives as well.
The trend as of now favors conservatives. Within the last few weeks, several credible conservative Republicans have emerged to run for seats that are currently held by Democrats.
Let's start off with three pick offs that are more than likely to occur:
- John Rubin, in District 18, has announced he's running against Cindy Neighbor, whom he narrowly lost to in 2008, a strong Democratic year. Look for a Rubin victory here. More about Rubin can be found at http://www.johnrubin.net/
- Amanda Grosserode, in District 16, has announced she's running against Gene Rardin, who has narrowly won the last two elections. I would hate to be Gene Rardin, as Grosserode, a leader in the tea party movement and extremely well organized, will walk circles around Rardin. More can be found out about Amanda at http://www.amanda4kansas.com/.
- Brett Hildabrand, in District 23, has announced he's running against Milack Talia, who defeated August Bogina in 2008. Hildabrand is a strong, liberty-based, pro-life conservative who will campaign hard for this district. More about Brett can be found out at http://hildabrand2010.com/.
The theme in the above three seats is they all have been held by conservative Republicans before. District 18 ist he former home of Senator Mary Pilcher Cook and Phill Kline. District 16 is the former home of Karen Divita and Tim Carmody. District 23 was represented by Cliff Franklin and Judy Morrison.
Victories by these three individuals in these seats -- which is expected if 2010 trend continues -- would bump up the number of solid conservatives from 8 to 11 and lower the number of Democrats down from 6 to 3.
In addition, conservative Greg Smith has filed to run against RINO-turned-Democrat Lisa Benlon in District 22, the hardest seat for Republicans to capture in Johnson County . Greg Smith, well known due to the tragic murder of their daugther, Kelsey, is a strong candidate and will present a strong challenge to Benlon.
There are also a number of other opportunities for conservatives:
- Jill Quigley, a RINO from District 17, has not yet been challenged in this competitive district for conservatives. Should conservatives find a candidate willing to work hard ala Grosserode, Rubin, Smith, or Hildabrand, Quigley will be in for a fight.
- Delores Furtado, a RINO-turned-Democrat from District 19, is extremely liberal and should have been defeated last time. There is some indication James Walker, who narrowly lost the GOP Primary in 2008 to eventual general election loser John Skubal, is going to run again and if true, conservatives would be wise to get behind Walker in this very winnable-yet-rarely-tried seat for conservatives.
- In District 25, RINO Terrie Huntington has vacated the seat due to her victory in the special precinct election to fill the next year of David Wysong's four year Senate term. (Huntington will have to run for a special two year term in 2010). That means her seat, which will be filled by a precinct election as well, will be virtually open in 2010 and could be taken by a conservative who is willing to knock on every door.
- In District 20, mod/conservative fence sitter Kevin Yoder is running for Congress. This north-south running district has a number of conservatives in it, and conservatives have had a number of cracks at it, including one against Gerry Ray in 2000, and twice against Yoder in 2002 and 04 before Yoder started to drift right. One wonders if in this open seat, if conservatives might stand a chance in the conservative-leaning year of 2010.
- In our view, conservatives should also not be afraid to challenge RINO's Kay Wolf, Sheryl Spalding, and Ron Worley in primaries. None of had truly serious primary challenges, and all are in territory where conservatives have done well. In District 29, conservatives Dennis Wilson, Patricia Lightner, and Patricia Kilpatrick held the seat before handing it to Spalding in 2006. In District 21, conservative-leaning Dean Newton held the seat comfortably before retiring a few years back mid-term. In District 30, conservative Kay O'Connor and conservative-leaning Julia Lynn performed well in the district in their Senate races. With tea party-inspired candidates emerging, all of these figures would be wise to watch their political backs in 2010.
Moral of this story? With solid conservatives Siegfreid, Kinzer, Brown, Donohoe, Kiegerl, Merrick, Schwab, and Olson all planning to run again, their seats are safe. With solid conservatives already running in 5 seats, and with seats being vacated (Yoder and Huntington), 2010 is slowly emerging as a year conservatives can make significant gains in Johnson County. Any conservative who is interested in running and lives in an available seat would be wise to seriously consider running in 2010. There is likely not to be a better year for conservatives anytime soon, particularly in a very politically-fickle area like Johnson County (demonstrated by the 8-2-6-6 split mentioned above).
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Could Johnson County Experience a Conservative Wave in 2010?
That's the question conservative activists, potential candidates, and political analysts should be asking in Johnson County as we enter 2010. With Sam Brownback virtually unopposed for Governor, and the winner of the Moran-Tiahrt primary virtually unopposed for the U.S Senate, Kris Kobach likely to be the Sec of State nominee, and with conservative candidates relatively likely to emerge in all three Congressional open races, and no major Democrat on the ballot with any name ID, Republicans stand to return Kansas to it's solid red-state status from the annoying shade of purple it had through the 90's due to people like Kathleen Sebelius, Mark Parkinson, Paul Morrison, Dennis Moore, Nancy Boyda, and the like.
At lower levels, the Democrats only made modest gains, but one area they made progress was in Johnson County. From 1995-1996, there were no Democratic seats in the Kansas House or Senate in JoCo. For years, there was one -- Sue Storm in District 22. Now there are six. In fact, if you break down the 22 House Reps, this is how they could be ideogically aligned:
8 Conservatives2 "Republicans"6 RINO's6 Democrats
With 2010 looking to be such a strong year nationally and statewide for the GOP, that trend could easily find itself in Johnson County as well. The question will be whether Democrats are ousted by RINO's or conservatives, and whether any open seats are taken over by RINO's or conservatives as well.
The trend as of now favors conservatives. Within the last few weeks, several credible conservative Republicans have emerged to run for seats that are currently held by Democrats.
Let's start off with three pick offs that are more than likely to occur:
- John Rubin, in District 18, has announced he's running against Cindy Neighbor, whom he narrowly lost to in 2008, a strong Democratic year. Look for a Rubin victory here. More about Rubin can be found at http://www.johnrubin.net/
- Amanda Grosserode, in District 16, has announced she's running against Gene Rardin, who has narrowly won the last two elections. I would hate to be Gene Rardin, as Grosserode, a leader in the tea party movement and extremely well organized, will walk circles around Rardin. More can be found out about Amanda at http://www.amanda4kansas.com/.
- Brett Hildabrand, in District 23, has announced he's running against Milack Talia, who defeated August Bogina in 2008. Hildabrand is a strong, liberty-based, pro-life conservative who will campaign hard for this district. More about Brett can be found out at http://hildabrand2010.com/.
The theme in the above three seats is they all have been held by conservative Republicans before. District 18 ist he former home of Senator Mary Pilcher Cook and Phill Kline. District 16 is the former home of Karen Divita and Tim Carmody. District 23 was represented by Cliff Franklin and Judy Morrison.
Victories by these three individuals in these seats -- which is expected if 2010 trend continues -- would bump up the number of solid conservatives from 8 to 11 and lower the number of Democrats down from 6 to 3.
In addition, conservative Greg Smith has filed to run against RINO-turned-Democrat Lisa Benlon in District 22, the hardest seat for Republicans to capture in Johnson County . Greg Smith, well known due to the tragic murder of their daugther, Kelsey, is a strong candidate and will present a strong challenge to Benlon.
There are also a number of other opportunities for conservatives:
- Jill Quigley, a RINO from District 17, has not yet been challenged in this competitive district for conservatives. Should conservatives find a candidate willing to work hard ala Grosserode, Rubin, Smith, or Hildabrand, Quigley will be in for a fight.
- Delores Furtado, a RINO-turned-Democrat from District 19, is extremely liberal and should have been defeated last time. There is some indication James Walker, who narrowly lost the GOP Primary in 2008 to eventual general election loser John Skubal, is going to run again and if true, conservatives would be wise to get behind Walker in this very winnable-yet-rarely-tried seat for conservatives.
- In District 25, RINO Terrie Huntington has vacated the seat due to her victory in the special precinct election to fill the next year of David Wysong's four year Senate term. (Huntington will have to run for a special two year term in 2010). That means her seat, which will be filled by a precinct election as well, will be virtually open in 2010 and could be taken by a conservative who is willing to knock on every door.
- In District 20, mod/conservative fence sitter Kevin Yoder is running for Congress. This north-south running district has a number of conservatives in it, and conservatives have had a number of cracks at it, including one against Gerry Ray in 2000, and twice against Yoder in 2002 and 04 before Yoder started to drift right. One wonders if in this open seat, if conservatives might stand a chance in the conservative-leaning year of 2010.
- In our view, conservatives should also not be afraid to challenge RINO's Kay Wolf, Sheryl Spalding, and Ron Worley in primaries. None of had truly serious primary challenges, and all are in territory where conservatives have done well. In District 29, conservatives Dennis Wilson, Patricia Lightner, and Patricia Kilpatrick held the seat before handing it to Spalding in 2006. In District 21, conservative-leaning Dean Newton held the seat comfortably before retiring a few years back mid-term. In District 30, conservative Kay O'Connor and conservative-leaning Julia Lynn performed well in the district in their Senate races. With tea party-inspired candidates emerging, all of these figures would be wise to watch their political backs in 2010.
Moral of this story? With solid conservatives Siegfreid, Kinzer, Brown, Donohoe, Kiegerl, Merrick, Schwab, and Olson all planning to run again, their seats are safe. With solid conservatives already running in 5 seats, and with seats being vacated (Yoder and Huntington), 2010 is slowly emerging as a year conservatives can make significant gains in Johnson County. Any conservative who is interested in running and lives in an available seat would be wise to seriously consider running in 2010. There is likely not to be a better year for conservatives anytime soon, particularly in a very politically-fickle area like Johnson County (demonstrated by the 8-2-6-6 split mentioned above).
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