2010 is like 1994 Update: GOP House Recruiting Going Very Well

Last month, we talked about the possiblity that 2010 could be like 1994. Over the past few weeks, more evidence is building towards that kind of result, particularly in the United States House of Representatives.

First of all, Obama's approval rating is dropping lick a rock, now at a -7 in Rasmussen's passion index, with only 28% now strongly approving, compared to 35% strongly disapproving. In the overall approval number, the margin is only 52-46. (It was as close as 51-48). Obama's honeymoon is over, he's being embarassed by Democrats in Congress, and his extreme left agenda is turning the public on him.

Second of all, much like Clinton took on issues the public didn't want him to in 1993 with health care and gays in the military, Obama is doing the same thing -- again with health care, but also cap and trade, detainess at GITMO, and now, going after Bush officials, something the public is against. Not only that, you have the talk about a second stimulus, which is turning off voters.

Third of all, as highlighted in this National Review piece, the Republicans are having a great success recruiting for the U.S. House. The current margin is 255-178, meaning the Republicans would need to pick up exactly 40 seats to win, about what they needed in 1994. Even if they do not get to that number, they are likely to trim that number significantly, which when combined with conservative Democrats, could put a signficant speed bump in the way to Obamunism. In the nation's Governor's races, we are seeing what is a chance at several GOP pickups - including two in 2009 with Virginia and New Jersey -- states that Obama won, interestingly. In 2010, one seat that will almost certainly flip to the R column is Kansas with Sam Brownback. Two neighbors -- Colorado (with former Rep. Scott McInnis) and Oklahoma (Rep. Mary Fallin) -- have also fielded strong Republican candidates for Governor.

The task is a long way from being completed, however, but we are off to a guood start.

The weak spot is the U.S Senate. In our estimation, some recruitment still needs to be done, particualrly in seats that are ready for the taking. While we recruited Rob Simmons to run against a very vulnerable Chris Dodd in Connecticut, the recruitment for D held seats still needs work. The national Republican erred in not getting behind Pat Toomey quickly, though he can recover. However, in other cases, though not a conservative by any stretch, it would be nice to see George Pataki declare for the U.S. Senate in New York. It is dissapointing that the Republicans were not able to convince Mike Huckabee to run against Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Vulnerable Senators and/or winnable open seats sit in Colorado (Bennett), Nevada (Reid), Illinois (Burris), Delaware (Kaufman), California (Boxer), North Dakota (Dorgan), Washington (Murray), and Oregon (Wyden) without a major Republican candidate. Now, there is still time, but at this point it looks like the Republicans could gain 1 or 2 in the Senate, but no more.

Overall, however, there are early encouraging signs. If Obama continues to drop in numbers, candidates are likely to emerge in the Senate races and more House races and Governor battles across the country.