For months now, many observers of Kansas politics, particularly conservative voters and activists who are not sure which horse to ride in the campaign to replace to Sam Brownback in the U.S. Senate, have been looking for things that would distinguish the candidacies of Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. With their legislative records being relatively similar, and having both been in Congress for well over a decade, the differences between the two men had largely been relegated to differences in styles and who perceived is the "real conservative".
Determing the latter question -- who is the real conservative -- is hard to do when legislative records are strong on both ends. Tiahrt has some powerful conservative endorsements, as does Moran -- from the likes of Tom Coburn and John Thune. It can be safe to say that both men -- like any Congressman -- have a vote or two that one could bring up as questionable, but if that were the test, we'd never be happy with who we elect.
Rather, in this case, the debate about who is the real conservative boils down to who would be the more aggressive Senator in fighting Obamunism and who is seen as willing to push the conservative mantle more -- on issues of social policy, security, and perhaps most importantly given the current controversies in Washington -- issues related to the size and role of government, economic policy, taxes, etc.
One way to do that is to see who a candidate chooses to have as prominent supporters and friends. Well, on Thursday, Jerry Moran picked his friends by trumpeting the endorsement of seven Johnson County mayors -- Overland Park Mayor Carl Gerlach, Lenexa Mayor Mike Boehm, Leawood Mayor Peggy Dunn, Olathe Mayor Mike Copeland, Shawnee Mayor Jeff Meyers, Prairie Village Mayor Ron Shaffer and Mission Mayor Laura McConwell. They offered the following statement in support:
“Jerry Moran will be an outstanding U.S. Senator for Johnson County and the state of Kansas. Throughout his career in Congress and the state Senate, Jerry has developed a detailed understanding of Johnson County and its unique needs. He has a strong track record on key issues such as economic development, education and healthcare. We strongly endorse Jerry Moran’s candidacy for U.S Senate.”
Note the typical buzzwords in the statement -- economic development, education, and health care -- all favorites of the moderate Johnson County establishment. All code words for increasing the role of government in people's lives (whether it be in private business, your child's education, or your health care) and thus more government spending. Without question, these seven mayors -- in varying degrees in each particular case -- have all been part of the Johnson County suburban establishment, all whom hold office in large part due to the tiny turnout in local elections where conservatives -- and the public in general -- don't participate and pay little attention.
Of course, a candidate cannot control who endorses them, and it is not a surprise, given the perceptions of Moran and Tiahrt, that these seven mayors support Moran since Tiahrt is perceived as the more conservative candidate. So, it would be one thing if just one of these mayors had announced their support in a simple statement. However, given that this announcement was made jointly by all seven at the same time and coordinated by the Moran campaign, it is obvious that these endorsements were aggressively sought by Jerry Moran and now, a voter can only assume that through this joint endorsement, Moran is now aligning himself with the policies supported in the past -- and in the future -- by this group of perceived Johnson County heavy hitters.
Examining the issue a little deeper, let's look at a couple of these mayors individually:
Jeff Meyers is a Democrat who actively supported a Democrat against current State Representative Owen Donohoe and participated in a fundraiser headlined by Governor Kathleen Sebelius in support of Corey Mohn, who was Donohoe's opponent.
Laura McConwell is the mayor of Mission who ran as the liberal candidate in the special Republican precinct election to replace former State Representative Ed O'Malley, who resigned in late 2006. McConwel lost to Ronnie Metsker, who ran as the "more conservative" candidate, by one vote -- 16-15. Metsker subsequently lost the 2008 general election to current State Representative, Democrat Mike Slattery.
Carl Gerlach and Mike Boehm have been leading liberal Republicans in Johnson County. Boehm has long been a moderate/liberal Republican precinct committeeman in Lenexa and Carl Gerlach was the moderates' "chosen one" to succeed long term Mayor Ed Eilert, who ran as the liberal Republican in 1996, but lost to Vince Snowbarger. Neither have made it a secret which side of the Republican battle they are a part of.
Mike Copeland has perhaps been the outlier of the bunch, often lending his endorsement to conservative candidates in general elections, perhaps recognizing the reality of the city in which he governs. Still, however, he is part of the economic-development-trumps-all mindset that has dominated local politics. Part of that may be the reality of the world, but it is a fact nonetheless.
However, no matter whether one might individually support one of these mayors, it is undeniable that as a group that most of them -- if not all -- are part of the liberal Johnson County establishment that depends on low turnout to get elected and has been, in our opinion, a big part of the culture of big government, excessive taxation, and overspending -- particularly on education -- that has dominated the mindset of elected officials at all levels of government and largely put us into the financial pickle we are in both in Kansas and nationally. By aligning himself with these local officials, Moran is planting his flag as to where he stands on these issues. While he may not agree with everything they do, the fact is they wouldn't all be supporting him so enthusiastically this early in the game if they did not perceive Jerry Moran as an ally in their agendas. Conservatives who believe that local government has been a big part of the excessive role and size of government should thus be troubled by this endorsement.
Now, the classic political consultant/advisor would probably tell you that this is the politically smart move for Moran -- that it would be foolish not to attempt to cultivate the support of local mayors, particularly in Johnson County where much of the Senate primary will be fought between Moran and Tiahrt. And, of course, that is exactly what Moran is trying to do here -- achieve momentum in Johnson County, the key battleground in that race. So, even setting the policy/philosophy-alignment questions above aside, Moran is trying to simply score political points with this announcement. He's trying to build up the perception of momentum from the average Johnson County voter in hopes that such voter will see the list of mayoral endorsements and say "whoa, this guy is pro-Johnson County!!"
In our view, however, even from a purely political perspective, Jerry Moran and his advisors are reading from the wrong political playbook when it comes to judging how to win Johnson County. The fact is, this is a battle that will be waged in the 2010 August Primary, and the average Johnson County "moderate" -- that Moran is trying to win over here -- won't have a whole lot of motivation to vote. There will be no primary for Governor, no big-name moderate is running against Moore, and it is not like the candidacy of Derek Schmidt for Secretary of State is going to create some motivational groundswell for moderate voters, who are already not well known for being turnout champions in August primaries.
In fact, one need only a brief history election to see this. In 2006, the last time there was any kind of primary in Johnson County -- conservative Eric Carter (who yes, is from JoCo) blew away moderate incumbent Sandy Praeger in Johnson County in the race for Insurance Commissioner, though he lost overall. In that same primary, Kay O'Connor -- who had literally no money -- got a rather impressive 44% county wide. Finally, Ken Canfield, largely identified as the most conservative candidate in the race, also won Johnson County. In the 2004 primary for Congress, Kris Kobach won. In the 2000 primary for Congress, Phill Kline won. In the 1996 primary for Congress, Vince Snowbarger won. Going more locally, in 2000 Kay O'Connor beat Rich Becker in the primary for the State Senate and also beat Rob Boyer in 2004. In 2008, conservative Mary Pilcher Cook blew away well-known moderate Sue Gamble. In fact, the only times that a moderate Republican won in a hotly contested August primary was in 2002, when Adam Taff beat Jeff Colyer, who was at the time, relatively unknown. The only other major case was in 2008, when Phill Kline -- extremely damaged goods at the time -- lost to Steve Howe, who had campaigned as a conservative and had the endorsement of several conservatives as well, such as Sam Brownback. In each of the other cases, the conservative candidate defeated the moderate candidate who had the support of the Johnson County "establishment". Point of this is to say that the Johnson County August primary voter is more conservative and the conservative usually wins -- even when the moderates have a reason to turnout. In 2010, there is no bogeyman like Kline on the ballot, and a few endorsements isn't going to motivate them to come out in droves for Jerry Moran, either, whose name ID is quite small here.
Furthermore, given the conservative nature of primaries, even in Johnson County, what the seven mayoral endorsements -- and it's implied association on policy -- risks is turning off conservative voters who were looking for a horse to ride and now have motivation to pick a candidate. It also risks possibly alienating others outside of Johnson County who don't have a favorable opinion of our county and "Johnson County economic development" anyway. Todd Tiahrt can now justifiably claim that Jerry Moran is aligning himself with a set of people who have been part of the very problems we are looking to fix. Being "better for Johnson County" is in the eye of the beholder, and many conservative Johnson County residents may react negatively to Moran and the mayors being public allies.
In summary, these mayoral endorsements are troubling from both a policy/prncipled perspective and may not have even been wise from a political one either. In essence, Jerry Moran picked his Johnson County friends yesterday, and those people are not part of the solution -- nor have they, historically, been part of electoral victories in August Primaries in Johnson County.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Monday, July 13, 2009
2010 is like 1994 Update: GOP House Recruiting Going Very Well
Last month, we talked about the possiblity that 2010 could be like 1994. Over the past few weeks, more evidence is building towards that kind of result, particularly in the United States House of Representatives.
First of all, Obama's approval rating is dropping lick a rock, now at a -7 in Rasmussen's passion index, with only 28% now strongly approving, compared to 35% strongly disapproving. In the overall approval number, the margin is only 52-46. (It was as close as 51-48). Obama's honeymoon is over, he's being embarassed by Democrats in Congress, and his extreme left agenda is turning the public on him.
Second of all, much like Clinton took on issues the public didn't want him to in 1993 with health care and gays in the military, Obama is doing the same thing -- again with health care, but also cap and trade, detainess at GITMO, and now, going after Bush officials, something the public is against. Not only that, you have the talk about a second stimulus, which is turning off voters.
Third of all, as highlighted in this National Review piece, the Republicans are having a great success recruiting for the U.S. House. The current margin is 255-178, meaning the Republicans would need to pick up exactly 40 seats to win, about what they needed in 1994. Even if they do not get to that number, they are likely to trim that number significantly, which when combined with conservative Democrats, could put a signficant speed bump in the way to Obamunism. In the nation's Governor's races, we are seeing what is a chance at several GOP pickups - including two in 2009 with Virginia and New Jersey -- states that Obama won, interestingly. In 2010, one seat that will almost certainly flip to the R column is Kansas with Sam Brownback. Two neighbors -- Colorado (with former Rep. Scott McInnis) and Oklahoma (Rep. Mary Fallin) -- have also fielded strong Republican candidates for Governor.
The task is a long way from being completed, however, but we are off to a guood start.
The weak spot is the U.S Senate. In our estimation, some recruitment still needs to be done, particualrly in seats that are ready for the taking. While we recruited Rob Simmons to run against a very vulnerable Chris Dodd in Connecticut, the recruitment for D held seats still needs work. The national Republican erred in not getting behind Pat Toomey quickly, though he can recover. However, in other cases, though not a conservative by any stretch, it would be nice to see George Pataki declare for the U.S. Senate in New York. It is dissapointing that the Republicans were not able to convince Mike Huckabee to run against Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Vulnerable Senators and/or winnable open seats sit in Colorado (Bennett), Nevada (Reid), Illinois (Burris), Delaware (Kaufman), California (Boxer), North Dakota (Dorgan), Washington (Murray), and Oregon (Wyden) without a major Republican candidate. Now, there is still time, but at this point it looks like the Republicans could gain 1 or 2 in the Senate, but no more.
Overall, however, there are early encouraging signs. If Obama continues to drop in numbers, candidates are likely to emerge in the Senate races and more House races and Governor battles across the country.
First of all, Obama's approval rating is dropping lick a rock, now at a -7 in Rasmussen's passion index, with only 28% now strongly approving, compared to 35% strongly disapproving. In the overall approval number, the margin is only 52-46. (It was as close as 51-48). Obama's honeymoon is over, he's being embarassed by Democrats in Congress, and his extreme left agenda is turning the public on him.
Second of all, much like Clinton took on issues the public didn't want him to in 1993 with health care and gays in the military, Obama is doing the same thing -- again with health care, but also cap and trade, detainess at GITMO, and now, going after Bush officials, something the public is against. Not only that, you have the talk about a second stimulus, which is turning off voters.
Third of all, as highlighted in this National Review piece, the Republicans are having a great success recruiting for the U.S. House. The current margin is 255-178, meaning the Republicans would need to pick up exactly 40 seats to win, about what they needed in 1994. Even if they do not get to that number, they are likely to trim that number significantly, which when combined with conservative Democrats, could put a signficant speed bump in the way to Obamunism. In the nation's Governor's races, we are seeing what is a chance at several GOP pickups - including two in 2009 with Virginia and New Jersey -- states that Obama won, interestingly. In 2010, one seat that will almost certainly flip to the R column is Kansas with Sam Brownback. Two neighbors -- Colorado (with former Rep. Scott McInnis) and Oklahoma (Rep. Mary Fallin) -- have also fielded strong Republican candidates for Governor.
The task is a long way from being completed, however, but we are off to a guood start.
The weak spot is the U.S Senate. In our estimation, some recruitment still needs to be done, particualrly in seats that are ready for the taking. While we recruited Rob Simmons to run against a very vulnerable Chris Dodd in Connecticut, the recruitment for D held seats still needs work. The national Republican erred in not getting behind Pat Toomey quickly, though he can recover. However, in other cases, though not a conservative by any stretch, it would be nice to see George Pataki declare for the U.S. Senate in New York. It is dissapointing that the Republicans were not able to convince Mike Huckabee to run against Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Vulnerable Senators and/or winnable open seats sit in Colorado (Bennett), Nevada (Reid), Illinois (Burris), Delaware (Kaufman), California (Boxer), North Dakota (Dorgan), Washington (Murray), and Oregon (Wyden) without a major Republican candidate. Now, there is still time, but at this point it looks like the Republicans could gain 1 or 2 in the Senate, but no more.
Overall, however, there are early encouraging signs. If Obama continues to drop in numbers, candidates are likely to emerge in the Senate races and more House races and Governor battles across the country.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Roger That: Two Thoughtful Editorials on Sarah Palin
The past two days, two well known political commentators and reporters have published thoughtful editorials regarding Sarah Palin's decision to resign the Governorship. Both essentially make the same point we at Kaw & Border do -- that Palin had to do what she did.
One is from famous moderate Republican Roger Stone, entitled "Palin's Plan"
http://stonezone.com/
Stone grills the media and fellow political analysts for their knee jerk reaction to Palin's decision:
Watching the Washington chattering class pan the Palin moves shows the moronic level of political analysis in the media today. Switch-hitter Dave Gergen, Ed Rollins who bolted his Party to go destroy the candidacy of Ross Perot and then trashed Perot, and Upper West Side reform Democrat Dick Morris who toiled for Ohio lefty, Howard Metzenbaum and Clinton but is today a born again Christian and right-winger, all panned the Palin move. Fools.
In fact, resignation as Governor was necessary to preserve any prospect that Palin could be nominated and elected in 2012 or beyond.
The second article is from Politico correspondent Roger Simon entitled The Sins of Sarah Palin:
http://www.politico.com/rogersimon/
Simon's piece explains why the elite conservative big wigs (the poobahs) and the media in general can't stand Sarah Palin -- she doesn't play by their rules. Here is a great excerpt:
The Republican Party likes to nominate the next guy in line. John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996 were all the next guys in line. They had “earned” their place in the party hierarchy. (Or, in the case of George W. Bush, his father had earned it for him.)
Today, it is hard to see who the next guy in line is, but the party mandarins, the pooh-bahs, are agreed on one thing: Sarah Palin ain’t it.
She is a dumb hick, a nobody from nowhere. She hunts moose with a chainsaw from the back of a snowmobile or something. Just listen to her resignation speech. It was not slick or polished or written by somebody else. She appeared to deliver it off the top of her head as if she were a real person. What a doofus!
Doesn’t she know that the highest form of political communication today is to exactly regurgitate a speech written for you by a speechwriter who has crafted, vetted and polled every phrase, line and word?
But listen to Palin. Listen to how “rambling” and “disjointed” she is. Once upon a time in American politics, this was known as being “plain-spoken,” but that time has gone. An entire industry of political consultants has grown up to make sure politicians are never plain-spoken.
Both Rogers -- Stone and Simon -- hit the nail on the head. The future is unclear for Palin -- but if she ever had a hope of being national and taking advantage of the huge base she has, she had to resign and get out of Alaska. She may fail in this national endeavor (whereever it leads her), but there is not one candidate for Congress, Governor, or anything else right now that wouldn't love to have Palin speak at their fundraiser, picnic, or reception.
One thing is also clear -- Palin is far from done. She also doesn't play by the media's rules. She is her own person, like her or not like her. She writes her own columns, tweets her own twitters, hunts her own moose, and captures her own salmon. Perhaps this unpolished Palin won't catch fire -- but judging by the reaction she draws -- both in support and against -- our guess is Palin will continue to be followed by an obessive press, hanging onto every word she says.
Palin now has three years to build an army, study up on issues, speak in front of more crowds in more cities and get more experience, all on her own terms rather than those of the McCain team. She can and will communicate directly with the public. She will publish a book which will make her a lot of money to pay off her debts. She can, despite what some say, win back voters who are only now listening to the ridiculous commentaries on TV by those who can't stand her. The public is fickle and the candidate they don't know that will yesterday can become their rallying point tomorrow. And, by the time 2012 rolls around, people won't care she left Alaska a bit early -- keep in mind by 2012, Romney and Huckabee won't have been Governor for over 5 years, and Newt Gingrich hasn't been in office for more than a decade. And let's not forget that Obama was a U.S Senator for less time than Palin was Governor before he decided to run for President in early 2007.
To us, it seems that those talking heads thinking Palin is done are protesting a bit too much. Perhaps they know that Palin's decision doesn't end her career, but rather it launches it. She is, they know, the number one force in politics today outside of Obama. She is now no longer relegated to Alaska by time or necessity, but can take her message, her charm, and her millions of supporters into a greater cause -- right when conservatives are looking for someone to rally around. Good timing, it seems. Perhaps it won't lead to a presidential bid, or perhaps it will.
Point is, Sarah Palin now has options and has, much like she did last year, the ability to turn the political world upside down like no one has on the Republican side in a generation. And that, no matter what you think of her, is a very good thing.
One is from famous moderate Republican Roger Stone, entitled "Palin's Plan"
http://stonezone.com/
Stone grills the media and fellow political analysts for their knee jerk reaction to Palin's decision:
Watching the Washington chattering class pan the Palin moves shows the moronic level of political analysis in the media today. Switch-hitter Dave Gergen, Ed Rollins who bolted his Party to go destroy the candidacy of Ross Perot and then trashed Perot, and Upper West Side reform Democrat Dick Morris who toiled for Ohio lefty, Howard Metzenbaum and Clinton but is today a born again Christian and right-winger, all panned the Palin move. Fools.
In fact, resignation as Governor was necessary to preserve any prospect that Palin could be nominated and elected in 2012 or beyond.
The second article is from Politico correspondent Roger Simon entitled The Sins of Sarah Palin:
http://www.politico.com/rogersimon/
Simon's piece explains why the elite conservative big wigs (the poobahs) and the media in general can't stand Sarah Palin -- she doesn't play by their rules. Here is a great excerpt:
The Republican Party likes to nominate the next guy in line. John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996 were all the next guys in line. They had “earned” their place in the party hierarchy. (Or, in the case of George W. Bush, his father had earned it for him.)
Today, it is hard to see who the next guy in line is, but the party mandarins, the pooh-bahs, are agreed on one thing: Sarah Palin ain’t it.
She is a dumb hick, a nobody from nowhere. She hunts moose with a chainsaw from the back of a snowmobile or something. Just listen to her resignation speech. It was not slick or polished or written by somebody else. She appeared to deliver it off the top of her head as if she were a real person. What a doofus!
Doesn’t she know that the highest form of political communication today is to exactly regurgitate a speech written for you by a speechwriter who has crafted, vetted and polled every phrase, line and word?
But listen to Palin. Listen to how “rambling” and “disjointed” she is. Once upon a time in American politics, this was known as being “plain-spoken,” but that time has gone. An entire industry of political consultants has grown up to make sure politicians are never plain-spoken.
Both Rogers -- Stone and Simon -- hit the nail on the head. The future is unclear for Palin -- but if she ever had a hope of being national and taking advantage of the huge base she has, she had to resign and get out of Alaska. She may fail in this national endeavor (whereever it leads her), but there is not one candidate for Congress, Governor, or anything else right now that wouldn't love to have Palin speak at their fundraiser, picnic, or reception.
One thing is also clear -- Palin is far from done. She also doesn't play by the media's rules. She is her own person, like her or not like her. She writes her own columns, tweets her own twitters, hunts her own moose, and captures her own salmon. Perhaps this unpolished Palin won't catch fire -- but judging by the reaction she draws -- both in support and against -- our guess is Palin will continue to be followed by an obessive press, hanging onto every word she says.
Palin now has three years to build an army, study up on issues, speak in front of more crowds in more cities and get more experience, all on her own terms rather than those of the McCain team. She can and will communicate directly with the public. She will publish a book which will make her a lot of money to pay off her debts. She can, despite what some say, win back voters who are only now listening to the ridiculous commentaries on TV by those who can't stand her. The public is fickle and the candidate they don't know that will yesterday can become their rallying point tomorrow. And, by the time 2012 rolls around, people won't care she left Alaska a bit early -- keep in mind by 2012, Romney and Huckabee won't have been Governor for over 5 years, and Newt Gingrich hasn't been in office for more than a decade. And let's not forget that Obama was a U.S Senator for less time than Palin was Governor before he decided to run for President in early 2007.
To us, it seems that those talking heads thinking Palin is done are protesting a bit too much. Perhaps they know that Palin's decision doesn't end her career, but rather it launches it. She is, they know, the number one force in politics today outside of Obama. She is now no longer relegated to Alaska by time or necessity, but can take her message, her charm, and her millions of supporters into a greater cause -- right when conservatives are looking for someone to rally around. Good timing, it seems. Perhaps it won't lead to a presidential bid, or perhaps it will.
Point is, Sarah Palin now has options and has, much like she did last year, the ability to turn the political world upside down like no one has on the Republican side in a generation. And that, no matter what you think of her, is a very good thing.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
July 3 was Sarah Palin's Independence Day
In perhaps what will go down as the biggest political move in a decade, Sarah Palin has decided to resign from her position as Governor of Alaska, effective July 26.
The conventional wisdom to this -- including among many well-meaning conservatives -- is that this move will sink Sarah Palin. Their claim is that by only serving 2 1/2 years as Governor, she will no longer be politically viable on a national level. And, for most politicians and most public figures, this might be an accurate analysis.
What that analysis is missing, however, is that Sarah Palin is not most politicians or most public figures. With the exception of Barack Obama, there is no person in politics today who draws more attention and more passion -- of both support and opposition -- than Sarah Palin. She is a political force, and liberals, the media, and some stone-throwing conservatives who have never liked her -- can't stand that fact.
Our take is similar to that of radio host Mark Levin -- who believes that Sarah Palin needed to do what she did today -- logistically, politically, and personally.
In our view, July 3 will forever be known as Sarah Palin's Independence Day. In the end, we believe it will be regarded as the most genius political move in this generation of politics.
Starting with the basic political choice, Sarah Palin had three choices:
A. Conventional Route A: The "George W. Bush/Bill Clinton" choice. Stay as Governor, run for re-election. This would give her "more experience" and more of a record as a public official. This is the safe route.
B. Conventional Route B: The "Mitt Romney" choice. Don't run for re-election out of necessity but serve out your term. Recognize that being Governor of Alaska and a huge national figure running for President is extremely difficult logistically, politically, and personally. Many people wouldn't have been surprised by a decision not to run, much like Mitt Romney opted not to run for re-election in Massachusetts. The circumstances, however, are different -- Romney decided not to run because he would have probably lost a run for reelection in the most liberal state in the union. In Palin's case, she likely would have won -- which makes this decision today all the more interesting -- but logistically, due to the obscure status of Alaska and the mere mileage between Alaska and the lower 48, particularly the media centers of the east coast -- it didn't make sense.
C. Unconventional route. The "Sarah Palin" choice. This essentially Option B sped up -- she recognized the reality of the situation that made her decide to not run for re-election but rather than hanging onto a title for 18 more months, she, in one day, pulled off both a principled and political move that allows the rocket ship that is Sarah Palin to finally blast off and morph into whatever SARAH PALIN -- rather than the media or conservative and liberal snipers -- thinks is best for Sarah Palin.
In our eyes, Option C was a genius political move and the only decision Sarah Palin could have made if she was ever going to seize the opportunity that comes from the fact she is a sensation with millions of supporters nationwide -- who, aside from Barack Obama, draws more passion and attention than any other figure in politics today.
Looking at Alaska politics specifically, once Palin decided she was not going to run again, she obviously had a desire to make sure her Alaska-based agenda remained in place for not only the next 18 months, but the next four years -- the period of which she would be on the national stage. Her closest ally in Alaska is her Lt. Governor, Sean Parnell. By resigning 18 months early, Palin has given him the gift of incumbency, and with it, the chance to establish his own name ID, his own record, which of course, likely to follow that of Palin's. So, she essentially laid the foundation for her successor to have the advantage going into 2010, particularly since may other candidates were lining up to run for Governor if she decided not to run again. Also, in terms of being a responsible steward of taxpayer dollars, her decision today in one fell swoop saved Alaska thousands, if not millions, of dollars for a lame duck governor and all the frivilous complaints she was fighting off. If she's not Governor, those complaints go away, as she is then a private citizen.
Moving beyond Alaska politics, another reason for the decision had to be simply the reality of logistics such as time and distance. Whether Palin likes it or not -- and let's assume she embraces it for the moment -- Palin is a national figure with a great deal of power as a political force. The logistics of travel and time between Alaska and the lower 48 made doing both nearly impossible if she wanted to have any semblance of control over her life, whether it be family or otherwise. It's not the same as being the Governor of Texas or the Senator from Illinois. If she felt her calling -- and the pathway that was clearly in front of her -- was more national than Alaska-based -- she simply had to get out from the shackles of being Alaska's Governor sooner rather than later.
In truth, the only real "argument" for staying was that it would allow her to build more of a record. The fact is that the liberal media was never going to give her credit for her accomplishments -- part out of intentional bias and also out of the fact Alaska is a small state (popluation wise) far removed from the attention of 99.5% of Americans. So, the record she could build as Governor would never be noticed anyway -- and any record she did build, no matter how great, would be torn apart by her opponents in the media and on the left. So, any benefit garnered from remaining as Governor would be nullified by the realities of other forces out there. Whether or not they are fair or not, they are realities, and her decision today recognized that.
Furthermore, who said that to run for President, you had to be Governor for 4 or 6 or 8 years anyway?
Poltically speaking, resigning the Govenorship frees Sarah Palin up to be herself, to go to as many events in the lower 48 that she wants to go to (or doesn't want to go). It allows her the freedom to manage her life and daily schedule in a way she wants, without the limits of daily Governor duties. It allows her to help out Republican candidates throughout the country by being a fundraising draw, a rally draw, and a media draw. Sarah Palin, in fact, has had to turn down speaking requests and other engagements for this very reason -- not anymore. Now Sarah Palin can take hold of her national following and embrace it in whatever way she feels fit.
Moreover, with this new freedom, she can actually take on her critics more directly. She can make more speeches, appear at more events, and start to cultivate the huge grassroots following she has. She can, in a sense, at least have a fighting chance at defining who she is by having a more of a constant opportunity to explain it herself, rather than having the media do it for her.
The fact is, in truth, while the public may hear a lot about Sarah Palin, they have heard very little actually from Sarah Palin -- and that is not an environment from which one can succeed politically when those doing the "reporting" are your enemies.
In a sense, this is similar to the late 70's after Ronald Reagan was no longer Governor of California and before he became President. He was able to embrace his status as a national figure, followed by millions of conservatives nationwide, freed from the limits of elected responsiblites of California. He operated at a time when we had a very liberal President at a time that the Republican brand was dead -- but nonetheless saw the fact he was a national figure with a dedicated following, and turned it into a political movement that laid the groundwork for a Republican -- and specifically, a conservative -- resurgence and revolution.
Today, though the individual details are different, history may be repeating itself. Again, we have a very liberal President. Again we have a Republican Party who has a very poor rating in the eyes of the public at the same time when more and more people are idenitfying themselves as conservatives. Up comes Sarah Palin -- who much like Reagan, has a national following with passionate supporters unmatched since the days of Reagan -- who many see as the leader of a revived conservative movement than can also appeal to Americans who aren't automatic Republican votes. By being free to do what she wants, Palin is now free to seize this opportunity before her, to try and follow in Reagan's footsteps -- and to shape herself and the Republican Party and the conservative movement in the way she wants -- in a way none of the other Republican national figures can -- and in a way she couldn't have done had she remained governor.
Finally, personally speaking, Sarah Palin may simply recognize that her calling -- demonstrated by her numbers of supporters and the attention she draws -- is to be a national figure, not an Alaskan figure. It could simply be that Palin feels that this is the time the country needs her -- needs an opposing political force that could match that of President Obama. The fact is, the ONLY person on the national scene today that can draw the attention near the scale of Obama is Sarah Palin. By being free to go on the national stage without the shackles of being Governor, she can embrace that role -- if she chooses to -- without reservation.
Now, it could be that she is, as some are reporting, sick of politics. Perhaps that is the case. Perhaps she just wants to quit altogether, to go back to a private life and comment occasionally on politics, but largely remain out of the scene.
It is our view that this is the wishful thinking of those in the media that can't stand her. This is the wishful thinking of those who may hate her and fear her but recognize the fact she is the only person who can possibly counter Obama on the national scene.
Rather, it is our view that today was Sarah Palin's new beginning, and the start of a force unseen in Republican circles since Reagan -- and, for Palin personally, the start of a new period of time where can define herself, be free to be who she is, free to travel the country and meet with and enjoy the support of her millions of followers, to rebuild whatever damage was done to her by the vicious media in recent months, and to choose whatever path she wants to take. She can be who she wants to be -- whether that be a private citizen, a mother, a wife, a conservative spokeswoman, or maybe, just maybe, President of the United States.
The conventional wisdom to this -- including among many well-meaning conservatives -- is that this move will sink Sarah Palin. Their claim is that by only serving 2 1/2 years as Governor, she will no longer be politically viable on a national level. And, for most politicians and most public figures, this might be an accurate analysis.
What that analysis is missing, however, is that Sarah Palin is not most politicians or most public figures. With the exception of Barack Obama, there is no person in politics today who draws more attention and more passion -- of both support and opposition -- than Sarah Palin. She is a political force, and liberals, the media, and some stone-throwing conservatives who have never liked her -- can't stand that fact.
Our take is similar to that of radio host Mark Levin -- who believes that Sarah Palin needed to do what she did today -- logistically, politically, and personally.
In our view, July 3 will forever be known as Sarah Palin's Independence Day. In the end, we believe it will be regarded as the most genius political move in this generation of politics.
Starting with the basic political choice, Sarah Palin had three choices:
A. Conventional Route A: The "George W. Bush/Bill Clinton" choice. Stay as Governor, run for re-election. This would give her "more experience" and more of a record as a public official. This is the safe route.
B. Conventional Route B: The "Mitt Romney" choice. Don't run for re-election out of necessity but serve out your term. Recognize that being Governor of Alaska and a huge national figure running for President is extremely difficult logistically, politically, and personally. Many people wouldn't have been surprised by a decision not to run, much like Mitt Romney opted not to run for re-election in Massachusetts. The circumstances, however, are different -- Romney decided not to run because he would have probably lost a run for reelection in the most liberal state in the union. In Palin's case, she likely would have won -- which makes this decision today all the more interesting -- but logistically, due to the obscure status of Alaska and the mere mileage between Alaska and the lower 48, particularly the media centers of the east coast -- it didn't make sense.
C. Unconventional route. The "Sarah Palin" choice. This essentially Option B sped up -- she recognized the reality of the situation that made her decide to not run for re-election but rather than hanging onto a title for 18 more months, she, in one day, pulled off both a principled and political move that allows the rocket ship that is Sarah Palin to finally blast off and morph into whatever SARAH PALIN -- rather than the media or conservative and liberal snipers -- thinks is best for Sarah Palin.
In our eyes, Option C was a genius political move and the only decision Sarah Palin could have made if she was ever going to seize the opportunity that comes from the fact she is a sensation with millions of supporters nationwide -- who, aside from Barack Obama, draws more passion and attention than any other figure in politics today.
Looking at Alaska politics specifically, once Palin decided she was not going to run again, she obviously had a desire to make sure her Alaska-based agenda remained in place for not only the next 18 months, but the next four years -- the period of which she would be on the national stage. Her closest ally in Alaska is her Lt. Governor, Sean Parnell. By resigning 18 months early, Palin has given him the gift of incumbency, and with it, the chance to establish his own name ID, his own record, which of course, likely to follow that of Palin's. So, she essentially laid the foundation for her successor to have the advantage going into 2010, particularly since may other candidates were lining up to run for Governor if she decided not to run again. Also, in terms of being a responsible steward of taxpayer dollars, her decision today in one fell swoop saved Alaska thousands, if not millions, of dollars for a lame duck governor and all the frivilous complaints she was fighting off. If she's not Governor, those complaints go away, as she is then a private citizen.
Moving beyond Alaska politics, another reason for the decision had to be simply the reality of logistics such as time and distance. Whether Palin likes it or not -- and let's assume she embraces it for the moment -- Palin is a national figure with a great deal of power as a political force. The logistics of travel and time between Alaska and the lower 48 made doing both nearly impossible if she wanted to have any semblance of control over her life, whether it be family or otherwise. It's not the same as being the Governor of Texas or the Senator from Illinois. If she felt her calling -- and the pathway that was clearly in front of her -- was more national than Alaska-based -- she simply had to get out from the shackles of being Alaska's Governor sooner rather than later.
In truth, the only real "argument" for staying was that it would allow her to build more of a record. The fact is that the liberal media was never going to give her credit for her accomplishments -- part out of intentional bias and also out of the fact Alaska is a small state (popluation wise) far removed from the attention of 99.5% of Americans. So, the record she could build as Governor would never be noticed anyway -- and any record she did build, no matter how great, would be torn apart by her opponents in the media and on the left. So, any benefit garnered from remaining as Governor would be nullified by the realities of other forces out there. Whether or not they are fair or not, they are realities, and her decision today recognized that.
Furthermore, who said that to run for President, you had to be Governor for 4 or 6 or 8 years anyway?
Poltically speaking, resigning the Govenorship frees Sarah Palin up to be herself, to go to as many events in the lower 48 that she wants to go to (or doesn't want to go). It allows her the freedom to manage her life and daily schedule in a way she wants, without the limits of daily Governor duties. It allows her to help out Republican candidates throughout the country by being a fundraising draw, a rally draw, and a media draw. Sarah Palin, in fact, has had to turn down speaking requests and other engagements for this very reason -- not anymore. Now Sarah Palin can take hold of her national following and embrace it in whatever way she feels fit.
Moreover, with this new freedom, she can actually take on her critics more directly. She can make more speeches, appear at more events, and start to cultivate the huge grassroots following she has. She can, in a sense, at least have a fighting chance at defining who she is by having a more of a constant opportunity to explain it herself, rather than having the media do it for her.
The fact is, in truth, while the public may hear a lot about Sarah Palin, they have heard very little actually from Sarah Palin -- and that is not an environment from which one can succeed politically when those doing the "reporting" are your enemies.
In a sense, this is similar to the late 70's after Ronald Reagan was no longer Governor of California and before he became President. He was able to embrace his status as a national figure, followed by millions of conservatives nationwide, freed from the limits of elected responsiblites of California. He operated at a time when we had a very liberal President at a time that the Republican brand was dead -- but nonetheless saw the fact he was a national figure with a dedicated following, and turned it into a political movement that laid the groundwork for a Republican -- and specifically, a conservative -- resurgence and revolution.
Today, though the individual details are different, history may be repeating itself. Again, we have a very liberal President. Again we have a Republican Party who has a very poor rating in the eyes of the public at the same time when more and more people are idenitfying themselves as conservatives. Up comes Sarah Palin -- who much like Reagan, has a national following with passionate supporters unmatched since the days of Reagan -- who many see as the leader of a revived conservative movement than can also appeal to Americans who aren't automatic Republican votes. By being free to do what she wants, Palin is now free to seize this opportunity before her, to try and follow in Reagan's footsteps -- and to shape herself and the Republican Party and the conservative movement in the way she wants -- in a way none of the other Republican national figures can -- and in a way she couldn't have done had she remained governor.
Finally, personally speaking, Sarah Palin may simply recognize that her calling -- demonstrated by her numbers of supporters and the attention she draws -- is to be a national figure, not an Alaskan figure. It could simply be that Palin feels that this is the time the country needs her -- needs an opposing political force that could match that of President Obama. The fact is, the ONLY person on the national scene today that can draw the attention near the scale of Obama is Sarah Palin. By being free to go on the national stage without the shackles of being Governor, she can embrace that role -- if she chooses to -- without reservation.
Now, it could be that she is, as some are reporting, sick of politics. Perhaps that is the case. Perhaps she just wants to quit altogether, to go back to a private life and comment occasionally on politics, but largely remain out of the scene.
It is our view that this is the wishful thinking of those in the media that can't stand her. This is the wishful thinking of those who may hate her and fear her but recognize the fact she is the only person who can possibly counter Obama on the national scene.
Rather, it is our view that today was Sarah Palin's new beginning, and the start of a force unseen in Republican circles since Reagan -- and, for Palin personally, the start of a new period of time where can define herself, be free to be who she is, free to travel the country and meet with and enjoy the support of her millions of followers, to rebuild whatever damage was done to her by the vicious media in recent months, and to choose whatever path she wants to take. She can be who she wants to be -- whether that be a private citizen, a mother, a wife, a conservative spokeswoman, or maybe, just maybe, President of the United States.
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